CN108537433B - Regional power grid risk early warning method based on multidimensional evaluation indexes - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a regional power grid risk early warning method based on multidimensional evaluation indexes, which comprises the steps of establishing regional power grid risk evaluation indexes based on equipment overload, N-1 load loss, weak transportation parties and spare power automatic switching locking, analyzing the influence of various risk indexes by utilizing real-time operation information of a power grid, scanning power grid risk points, simulating and analyzing the power grid change conditions after the risk point equipment is switched on and switched off, wherein the power grid change conditions comprise newly-added out-of-limit equipment, power failure equipment, a voltage loss station, power failure users and loss load information, and finally giving a risk grade evaluation result based on a quantitative grading rule base. The method and the system realize multidimensional risk assessment suitable for regional power grid operation characteristics, can timely and comprehensively analyze regional power grid weak links, provide auxiliary suggestions for analysis and decision making, arrangement of a carrier, load transfer and the like of scheduling personnel, further provide defense and improvement measures, and practically improve the emergency disposal efficiency of the power grid and the capability of resisting sudden risks.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and particularly relates to a regional power grid risk early warning method based on multidimensional evaluation indexes.
Background
The problems of complex operation mode, heavy equipment load, insufficient power supply capacity and the like of regional power grids are increasingly highlighted, the pressure of safe operation of the power grids is remarkably increased, and the conventional dispatching mode which only depends on manual experience is difficult to adapt to the development requirements of the future regional power grids. The regional power grid is used as a key link for starting and stopping the power grid in China, and intelligent power grid risk early warning work is urgently needed to be done, so that the regional power grid risk perception and prevention control capability is improved.
At present, the research of online safety analysis mostly focuses on the operation risk assessment of a large power grid, and focuses on the dimensions of thermal stability of slave devices, dynamic stability of a system, transient stability and the like to perform online assessment on the operation risk of the power grid respectively. Compared with provincial and above power grids, regional power grids have own service characteristics, the operation concern points of the regional power grids are focused on the aspects of key equipment outage, load loss, power supply quality of important users and the like, the existing dispatching automation system is lack of a practical power grid risk early warning means, the risk probability cannot be evaluated quantitatively, the early warning of risks is focused on equipment or cross section out-of-limit, and the load loss influence is less considered. Meanwhile, when the maintenance mode is arranged, a dispatching department mainly judges the power grid risk after the equipment is shut down through manual analysis, and an effective risk analysis tool is lacked.
The regional power grid is generally supplied by a 500kV power grid, the transient safety problem of the regional power grid is not obvious under the condition that the total installed capacity of a local power plant is small, and the regulation and control operation mainly focuses on load loss influence caused by the change of the operating state of the power grid. Based on the reasons, risk evaluation indexes need to be established in the online risk analysis of the regional power grid, then the influence of various risk indexes is analyzed by comprehensively utilizing real-time operation information on the basis, a risk evaluation result is given based on a quantitative grading principle, and the operation risk level of the regional power grid is effectively reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: aiming at the problems, the invention provides a regional power grid risk early warning method based on multi-dimensional evaluation indexes.
The technical scheme is as follows: in order to realize the purpose of the invention, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a regional power grid risk early warning method based on multidimensional evaluation indexes comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing regional power grid risk evaluation indexes based on equipment overload, N-1 load loss, weak transportation sides and spare power automatic switching locking;
(2) acquiring a power grid model and real-time operation information to form a network topology connection relation;
(3) analyzing the influence of various risk indexes by using the real-time operation information of the power grid, and scanning power grid risk points;
(4) simulating and analyzing the power grid change conditions after the risk points are switched on and switched off, wherein the power grid change conditions comprise the out-of-limit of newly-added equipment, power failure equipment, a loss-voltage station, power failure users and loss load information;
(5) and evaluating the risk grade by combining a risk evaluation quantitative grading principle.
In the step (1), the equipment overload index is used for evaluating whether the current/power of the line/main transformer exceeds the rated ampacity/rated capacity of the line/main transformer under the ground state of the power grid and an expected failure mode, and whether the bus voltage is between the specified upper limit and the specified lower limit.
In the step (1), the N-1 loss load index is used for evaluating whether the power grid has equipment loss power in the N-1 mode, and the spare power automatic switching action condition needs to be considered in the analysis process.
And (2) in the step (1), the weak square index is used for evaluating whether a power station which does not meet the power supply reliability requirements of important users, such as series supply, a single main transformer, a single bus and the like, exists under the power grid ground state and the expected failure mode.
In the step (1), the blocking condition of the substation spare power automatic switching device under the power grid ground state and the expected failure mode is evaluated by combining the spare power automatic switching blocking index with the power grid tide change condition, and the influence of the spare power automatic switching device meeting the blocking condition on the power supply reliability of the power grid is analyzed.
In the step (3), equipment overload risk analysis is performed, and equipment exceeding the limit value is a risk point to be evaluated by comparing the equipment measurement with the limit value.
In the step (3), the N-1 loss load risk analysis is obtained through a static safety analysis function of the dispatching automation system, and the equipment with load loss is the risk point to be evaluated.
And (3) analyzing the risks of the weak fortune, identifying the self-defined weak fortune by analyzing the operation mode of the transformer substation, wherein weak fortune equipment is a risk point to be evaluated.
In the step (3), the risk analysis of the backup power automatic switching locking is performed, a backup power automatic switching model is used for simulating and analyzing the action behavior of the backup power automatic switching after the voltage of the bus is lost, whether the backup power automatic switching locking occurs is analyzed and judged under the condition of the trend change after the backup power automatic switching action, and the equipment with the backup power automatic switching locking action is the risk point to be evaluated.
Has the advantages that: the method provided by the invention realizes the regional power grid operation risk assessment based on real-time and expected modes, can timely and comprehensively analyze the regional power grid weak links, provides auxiliary suggestions for the analysis and decision, the arrangement of a carrier, the load transfer and the like of a dispatcher, further provides defense and improvement measures, and practically improves the emergency disposal efficiency of the power grid and the capability of the regional power grid for resisting sudden risks.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of regional grid risk assessment.
Detailed Description
The technical solution of the present invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
The regional power grid risk early warning method based on the multidimensional evaluation index comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing regional power grid risk evaluation indexes based on equipment overload, N-1 load loss, weak transportation sides and spare power automatic switching locking;
the equipment overload index is used for evaluating whether the current/power of a line/main transformer exceeds the rated current capacity/rated capacity of the line/main transformer under the ground state of a power grid and an expected failure mode and whether the bus voltage is between the specified upper limit and the specified lower limit;
n-1 loss load index, evaluating whether the power grid has equipment loss power in the N-1 mode, and considering the spare power automatic switching action condition in the analysis process;
evaluating whether a power station which does not meet the power supply reliability requirements of important users, such as a series power supply station, a single main transformer station, a single bus station and the like, exists under the power grid ground state and an expected failure mode;
the method comprises the steps that a spare power automatic switching locking index is combined with the power flow change condition of a power grid to evaluate the locking condition of a substation spare power automatic switching device under the power grid ground state and an expected failure mode, and the influence of the spare power automatic switching device meeting the locking condition on the power supply reliability of the power grid is analyzed;
(2) acquiring a power grid model and real-time operation information based on a scheduling automation system, and forming a network topology connection relation on the basis;
(3) analyzing the influence of various risk indexes by using the real-time operation information of the power grid, and scanning power grid risk points;
analyzing equipment overload risks, namely comparing equipment measurement and limit values including active power, current and voltage, wherein equipment exceeding the limit values is a risk point to be evaluated;
n-1 load loss risk analysis is carried out, and the load loss equipment is obtained through a static safety analysis function of a dispatching automation system, namely a risk point to be evaluated;
analyzing the risk of the weak fortune, namely identifying self-defined weak fortune such as a single main transformer, a single bus and the like by analyzing the operation mode of the transformer substation, wherein the weak fortune equipment is a risk point to be evaluated;
analyzing the risk of the backup power automatic switching locking, namely simulating and analyzing the action behavior of the backup power automatic switching after the voltage of a bus is lost by using a backup power automatic switching model, and analyzing and judging whether the backup power automatic switching locking occurs or not under the condition of the trend change after the backup power automatic switching action, wherein equipment with the backup power automatic switching locking action is a risk point to be evaluated;
(4) simulating and analyzing the power grid change conditions after the risk points are switched on and switched off, wherein the power grid change conditions comprise the out-of-limit of newly-added equipment, power failure equipment, a loss-voltage station, power failure users and loss load information;
(5) and evaluating the risk grade by combining a risk evaluation quantification grading principle, wherein the risk evaluation grading principle comprises the number of power failure equipment, the number of pressure loss stations, the number of power failure users and the loss load capacity, namely analyzing the influence after the risk occurs, and simultaneously matching a predefined risk evaluation quantification grading principle to obtain the risk grade.
The quantitative grading principle refers to that risk assessment results are classified according to national grid company safety accident survey regulations and in combination with regional power grid equipment scheduling administration ranges according to accident properties, power failure ranges and severity of consequences, namely the number and voltage types of power-off equipment, the number and voltage types of voltage-loss stations, the total number of power-off users, the total amount of lost loads and the like, and the quantitative grading principle can be set by manual customization.
The invention provides a regional power grid risk early warning method based on a multidimensional evaluation index aiming at the practical conditions that the regional power grid has complex operation mode, higher power supply reliability requirement, lack of an auxiliary decision-making means and the like, and the power grid characteristic objects which are focused on in daily operation are scheduled, so that the regional power grid multidimensional risk early warning based on a scheduling automation system is realized, the scheduling personnel is assisted to effectively control the power grid risk, and the accident occurrence probability is reduced.
Claims (1)
1. A regional power grid risk early warning method based on multidimensional evaluation indexes is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing regional power grid risk evaluation indexes based on equipment overload, N-1 load loss, weak transportation sides and spare power automatic switching locking;
the equipment overload index is used for evaluating whether the current/power of the line/main transformer exceeds the rated current-carrying capacity/rated capacity of the line/main transformer under the ground state of the power grid and an expected failure mode and whether the bus voltage is between the specified upper limit and the specified lower limit;
the N-1 loss load index is used for evaluating whether equipment loss exists in the power grid in the N-1 mode, and the spare power automatic switching action condition needs to be considered in the analysis process;
the weak power supplier index is used for evaluating whether a power grid base state and a station which does not meet the power supply reliability requirement of a single main transformer and a single bus exist in an expected failure mode;
the method comprises the steps that a spare power automatic switching locking index is combined with the power flow change condition of a power grid to evaluate the locking condition of a substation spare power automatic switching device under the power grid ground state and an expected failure mode, and the influence of the spare power automatic switching device meeting the locking condition on the power supply reliability of the power grid is analyzed;
(2) acquiring a power grid model and real-time operation information to form a network topology connection relation;
(3) analyzing the influence of various risk indexes by using the real-time operation information of the power grid, and scanning power grid risk points;
analyzing equipment overload risks, namely comparing equipment measurement with a limit value, wherein equipment exceeding the limit value is a risk point to be evaluated;
n-1 load loss risk analysis is carried out, and the load loss equipment is obtained through a static safety analysis function of a dispatching automation system, namely a risk point to be evaluated;
analyzing the risks of the weak carriers, namely identifying the self-defined weak carriers by analyzing the operation mode of the transformer substation, wherein weak carrier equipment is a risk point to be evaluated;
analyzing the risk of the backup power automatic switching locking, namely simulating and analyzing the action behavior of the backup power automatic switching after the voltage of a bus is lost by using a backup power automatic switching model, and analyzing and judging whether the backup power automatic switching locking occurs or not under the condition of the trend change after the backup power automatic switching action, wherein equipment with the backup power automatic switching locking action is a risk point to be evaluated;
(4) simulating and analyzing the power grid change conditions after the risk points are switched on and switched off, wherein the power grid change conditions comprise the out-of-limit of newly-added equipment, power failure equipment, a loss-voltage station, power failure users and loss load information;
(5) and evaluating the risk grade by combining a risk evaluation quantitative grading principle.
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| CN109191006B (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2021-08-10 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Method for automatically scanning and analyzing risk of N-1 of 110kV main transformer of power grid |
| CN109460896B (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2021-09-21 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Automatic scanning analysis method for N-1 risk of 110kV line of power grid |
| CN110288216A (en) * | 2019-06-17 | 2019-09-27 | 国网甘肃省电力公司兰州供电公司 | A kind of power customer service Risk-warning and trend analysis method |
| CN110826228B (en) * | 2019-11-07 | 2022-07-01 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Regional power grid operation quality limit evaluation method |
| CN111340360B (en) * | 2020-02-25 | 2024-04-16 | 中国科学院电工研究所 | Real-time risk assessment method for comprehensive energy system based on operation and grid risk |
| CN111401731A (en) * | 2020-03-13 | 2020-07-10 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Risk control aid decision-making method and system based on artificial intelligence learning |
| CN111929528A (en) * | 2020-06-11 | 2020-11-13 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Monitoring and early warning method for fault risk of urban power grid equipment |
| CN112001588A (en) * | 2020-07-17 | 2020-11-27 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Accident event online pre-judging method and device based on N-1 state |
| CN114755479A (en) * | 2022-04-06 | 2022-07-15 | 南栖仙策(南京)科技有限公司 | Power grid regulation and control method and device |
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